SUPPLIES THE MISSING PIECE IN YOUR FORECASTING PROCESS

No matter how sophisticated the forecasting software you use, your forecasts will not achieve peak accuracy until you master the complex judgment calls that only a human can make. The first book of its kind, Profit from Your Forecasting Software shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software.

Taking a non-mathematical approach, it explores common decisions such as choosing the most appropriate model, adjusting forecasts, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and more. It also provides plain-English explanations of crucial concepts such as seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared. And it helps you:

• Choose the best forecasting methods for a range of different purposes and situations
• Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software's output
• Gain insight into the psychological biases that can influence forecasters' judgment calls
• Know when and if to override your software's predictions
• Learn to test, plan, and configure your software for optimal accuracy

Whether you're a forecasting ace, a reluctant newcomer, or anything in-between, Profit from Your Forecasting Software is one professional resource you can't afford to be without.

Whether you're a forecasting software power-user with a deep understanding of statistical modeling, or a relative innumerate who has had the job of forecasting thrust upon you, you understand that any software is only as good as its user. No matter how sophisticated the software you use, the accuracy of your forecasts relies greatly upon the "X Factor," of human intuition, and the nuanced judgment calls that only a person can make.

Should I overrule the system's forecast? How do I interpret the most recent output? How much legacy data do I need to input in order to leverage, to the fullest, a specific method in my software? These are among the myriad questions with which forecasters commonly wrestle and for which, until now, there was little or no expert guidance available in book form.

While there are many books on forecasting, ranging from academic treatises to statistical modeling to nuts-and-bolts technical manuals, this is the first and only book devoted to the common everyday issues forecasters face. Taking an intuitive, non-mathematical approach, Professor Goodwin discusses the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting techniques for a wide range of business uses. He explains how to interpret and evaluate your software's output. And he provides expert guidance on when and how to inject your judgment into the forecasting process. In addition, he demystifies important concepts such as seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared. And he explores the ways in which psychological biases can influence forecasters' judgments.

The first and only book devoted to understanding and successfully deploying the "X Factor" of business forecasting, Profit from Your Forecasting Software is an indispensable working resource for sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts, regardless of the industries they work in or their levels of mathematical sophistication.