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Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules and Indeterminacy: A Puzzle and a Resolution

AUTHOR International Journal of Central Banking; Levine, Paul; McAdam, Peter
PUBLISHER Bibliogov (09/27/2012)
PRODUCT TYPE Paperback (Paperback)

Description
We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely, to be forward looking and preemptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following "Calvo-type" inflation-forecast-based (IFB) interest rate rules that depend on a discounted sum of current and future rates of inflation. Such rules might be regarded as both within the legal frameworks and potentially mimicking central bankers' practice. We find that Calvo-type IFB interest rate rules are, first, less prone to indeterminacy than standard rules with a finite forward horizon. Second, in difference form, the indeterminacy problem disappears altogether. Third, optimized forms have good stabilization properties as they become more forward looking, a property that sharply contrasts that of standard IFB rules. Fourth, they appear data coherent when incorporated into a well-known estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the euro area.
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Product Details
ISBN-13: 9781249560388
ISBN-10: 1249560381
Binding: Paperback or Softback (Trade Paperback (Us))
Content Language: English
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Page Count: 38
Carton Quantity: 117
Product Dimensions: 7.44 x 0.08 x 9.69 inches
Weight: 0.19 pound(s)
Country of Origin: US
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BISAC Categories
Political Science | General
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We examine an interesting puzzle in monetary economics between what monetary authorities claim (namely, to be forward looking and preemptive) and the poor stabilization properties routinely reported for forecast-based rules. Our resolution is that central banks should be viewed as following "Calvo-type" inflation-forecast-based (IFB) interest rate rules that depend on a discounted sum of current and future rates of inflation. Such rules might be regarded as both within the legal frameworks and potentially mimicking central bankers' practice. We find that Calvo-type IFB interest rate rules are, first, less prone to indeterminacy than standard rules with a finite forward horizon. Second, in difference form, the indeterminacy problem disappears altogether. Third, optimized forms have good stabilization properties as they become more forward looking, a property that sharply contrasts that of standard IFB rules. Fourth, they appear data coherent when incorporated into a well-known estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the euro area.
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Author: Levine, Paul
A former newspaper reporter and trial lawyer, Paul Levine lives in Miami. His other Jake Lassiter novels include To Speak for the Dead, Night Vision, False Dawn, and Mortal Sin.
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Paperback